Professional soothsayer Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has given an update on the 2016 presidential election that finds Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton maintaining her strong lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump. Silver is widely regarded as the best predictor of election outcomes. In 2012 he correctly predicted the results of the presidential election in every single state. He also correctly predicted 36 out of 37 gubernatorial races.
Silver explains that while Clinton has roughly a 5 point lead in all of the most recent polls, these polls have consistently been favorable towards Trump throughout the election cycle. Many polls are still giving Clinton an 8 or 10 point lead, maintaining her post-convention ‘bounce’ (the phenomena that a candidate normally experiences a positive boost in polls immediately following their convention).
Silver’s predictions, produced by his personally designed models, will continue to be updated as more ‘traditional’ telephone polls are conducted over the next couple weeks. However, we can be fairly certain at this point that Clinton will trounce Trump on election day.
We must remember that Clinton’s lead is owed to the vigorous support she is receiving, both in favor of her informed progressive policies and unparalleled experience, and in fear of the cataclysm of a Trump presidency. Clinton supporters and never-Trumpers cannot be lulled into complacency by good polls. Polls show that we are winning, but the race isn’t over yet so must keep fighting the good fight all the way up until November 8.
Marisa completed her undergraduate degree in 2013 at the University of Wisconsin with a double major in creative writing and media studies. She is an advocate of progressive policies and focuses her interests on gender equality and preventing sexual and domestic violence.