Political statistical wizard Nate Silver, the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, is predicting doom and gloom for the candidacy of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Silver’s prediction is based upon the bombshell audio recording of Trump from 2005 bragging about sexually assaulting women and attempting to cheat on his wife.
The sage of FiveThirtyEight was the only person to accurately predict which candidate would win every state in the 2012 presidential contest between Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) and President Barack Obama, and his words are not to be taken lightly.
Silver further stipulated his analysis is based on the fact that never before in the history of American politics has a major political party run away so quickly from their standard bearer in such a short amount of time:
The whole party is fleeing him. We’ve never seen anything like this in a modern American election campaign.
Individuals capable of critical thinking have been flabbergasted for months how Trump has been able to proceed in his campaign considering his deplorable history of misogyny against women, as any female who would vote for him is akin to a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders for president.
Another aspect which is driving Trump’s impending humiliation at the ballot box is being driven by his already low popularity rating. Trump’s negatives were the highest of any presidential candidate in history, and that was before he alienated women across the nation by cavalierly bragging that he grabs women “by the pus*y” and that he is able to get away with that behavior because he is rich and famous. Silver wrote:
The most relevant piece of context, however, is that Trump was extremely unpopular to begin with. In our national polling average, he’s varied between having 36 percent of the vote and 41 percent and was at about 40 percent heading into the weekend. That’s awfully low for our modern, highly partisan era, in which all major-party nominees since 2000 have received at least 46 percent of the vote. Clinton isn’t doing great either, but at about 45 percent in national polls, she’s closer to the normal range.
There may be a silver lining for Trump, the perennial loser that he is, according to Silver, because Trump is so unpopular. Considering Trump has only had around 40 percent of the vote, and considering that his supporters have already turned a blind eye to all of his past behavior, they may not be particularly concerned with this most recent revelation:
On the one hand, the fact that Trump’s support was so low to begin with could presumably mitigate the damage to him. If you’re only getting 40 percent of the vote, the voters you do have are probably pretty committed to you — and Trump has some passionate supporters.
Ultimately Silver predicts that Trump’s scandal will be the root cause of his downfall. The statistical tie Trump and Clinton have been engaged in has been erased. Even though Clinton has been winning in the far majority of polls by 5 to 6 percent, that is also the margin of error involved in polling. Now, Silver says, it is no longer so simple and Trump’s road to victory has been greatly diminished:
Even before the “hot mic” tape, our model gave Clinton a 5 to 6 percentage point lead, and the error in the forecast is roughly symmetric. The polls could move by 5 or 6 points toward Trump, giving him a narrow win, or — equally likely, per our model — they could move by 5 or 6 points toward Clinton, giving her a double-digit margin. To put it another way, a Clinton landslide is no more far-fetched than a Trump victory — and given the events of the past 24 hours, probably less so.
For his part, Trump has brushed off the words of Silver as mere babble. Trump said, “He didn’t predict us in the primary and he had never called a loser before. He’s always been on the right side of what happened in terms of, at least, his predictions and he didn’t predict me in the primaries.”
The duty of protecting the American republic now falls to the American people. Their decision has never been more easy. They can either support a man who openly and proudly brags about sexually assaulting women, who cheats on his wife, has failed at nearly every business he has ever attempted, and who has swindled the American taxpayer out of 100s of millions of dollars, or they can support Hillary Clinton — the most qualified candidate to grace the presidential ballot box in any of our lifetimes.
Lou Colagiovanni is an investigative journalist living in Las Vegas who specializes in politics and crime. His work has been highlighted all over the world and he is regularly featured on television and radio.