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UNEXPECTED: How RFK Jr. is SINKING Trump’s campaign
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May 9, 2024

UNEXPECTED: How RFK Jr. is SINKING Trump’s campaign

by
October 18, 2023
RFK Jr. trump

In a major development in the 2024 presidential run, the respected MaristPoll has established that Robert Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy is significant and that it will draw more votes from Donald Trump than Joe Biden.

When we initially learned that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. planned to run for president as a Democrat, there was a collective yawn.

When he declared himself to be running as an Independent, we immediately shot to attention because even though we think that he’s as crazy as a drunk duck, he is still a “Kennedy,” and when one got out of the weeds and away from the crazy stuff, he is still a liberal. (The crazed drunk duck description fits swimmingly with forgetting his speech when he announced his candidacy.)

Part of the reaction was terror. “What if those idiots worried about Biden’s age will tolerate the insane vax-stance, and just get a younger liberal in office? It could take 3-7 points away from Biden!” we thought.

And then the rationalizations, “Maybe his signature thing is anti-vax and very few will look beyond that at all, and there will be a bigger number of anti-vax people who don’t like Trump who jump to him? Or is that just wishful thinking?”

I suspect our thoughts mirror many across the country.

But as noted above, there is now a poll definitively establishing that — for now — RFK Jr. is pulling two votes away from Trump for every vote he pulls from Biden. As Marist reports:

“In a potential presidential re-match, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain competitive with Biden scoring just three points more among registered voters nationally. However, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. factors into the equation, Biden opens up a 7-percentage point lead over Trump among the national electorate. Kennedy’s presence erodes Trump’s lead among independents and cuts into his support among Republicans. Trump’s loss among his base is double the loss Biden experiences among Democrats.”

It is also important to note that the raw numbers are important, too.

With the understanding that we’re more than a year from the election and numbers change, we know that most polls at this point in the election cycle in 2015 had Hillary Clinton polling two to four points ahead of Trump nationally. And yet she still lost the electoral college.

Clinton won the national popular vote by about 2.7% – matching her polling numbers.

If the polls take Biden from three points over Trump all the way to a plus seven, that’s still no guarantee of an electoral college victory, but it allows one to breathe easier.

The other thing that grabs one’s attention is that RFK Jr. has shockingly high numbers:

In my lifetime, there has only been one Independent who had that kind of pull: Ross Perot, who for reasons beyond understanding, got 20% of the vote in 1992. It put Bill Clinton into office, with the plurality of voters coming in significantly under 50% of the overall vote. “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Yeah, good times. This type of Independent is seen perhaps once in a generation.

The 16% means it’s pretty critical to watch for any movement. Perhaps RFK Jr. will figure out that it’s the crazy shit that’ll keep him out of office and he begins to downplay that aspect of his policy statements.

Endless “maybes” aren’t worth it, however.

Here is what we know. The only way that RFK Jr. is pulling more votes from Trump is because of the anti-vax movement.

Strategically, the Democrats should play up Kennedy’s anti-vax and crazy conspiracy mongering and downplay his less insane ideas.

Tell people you can’t separate the insanity from the other aspects of his candidacy. Drunk ducks don’t work that way.

“He will appoint an orthodontist to be the Surgeon General!”

And we’re off! With some pretty good news.

I can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com and on X @JasonMiciak.

Editor’s note: This is an opinion column that solely reflects the opinions of the author

Jason Miciak
Jason Miciak is an associate editor and opinion writer for Occupy Democrats. He's a Canadian-American who grew up in the Pacific Northwest. He is a trained attorney, but for the last five years, he's devoted his time to writing political news and analysis. He enjoys life on the Gulf Coast as a single dad to a 15-year-old daughter. Hobbies include flower pots, cooking, and doing what his daughter tells him they're doing. Sign up to get all of my posts by email right here:
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Jason Miciak is an associate editor and opinion writer for Occupy Democrats. He's a Canadian-American who grew up in the Pacific Northwest. He is a trained attorney, but for the last five years, he's devoted his time to writing political news and analysis. He enjoys life on the Gulf Coast as a single dad to a 15-year-old daughter. Hobbies include flower pots, cooking, and doing what his daughter tells him they're doing. Sign up to get all of my posts by email right here:

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May 9, 2024
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