SAD PREDICTION: 2024 election violence likely, former lawmakers declare
A new poll says that a full 84% of past members of Congress agree that there is at least “somewhat of a chance of violence” associated with the 2024 election.
Consider the following scenarios:
Scenario One: Trump is up in the polls going into the election but loses those key Electoral College states again and points to polls as evidence the election was rigged – even though that’s exactly how he won in 2016.
he will claim that he had the election stolen from him even though he was merely experiencing the inverse of his win against Hillary Clinton.
His followers will be apoplectic, and Trump will likely have already been convicted of the January 6th crimes. They go to the streets.
Scenario Two: What if Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million? (Popular vote wins have been steadily rising.) Meanwhile, Trump ekes out a legitimate win in those swing states, as happened in 2016, and immediately launches the authoritarian policies he has promised.
A guy who lost in 2020 and wants to control the cities in 2025 is a guy who the vast majority didn’t vote for? Will that happen without a violent response?
Scenario Three: Joe Biden wins by 10 million popular votes and barely manages an Electoral College victory. Trump screams “rigged” because he will scream “rigged” with any loss. But now he also faces possible jail time and winks and nods that “Biden voters” are vermin that must be “taken out.”
These are all realistic, and now we know that the political set gets it and fears it:
Important datapoint https://t.co/puvZZtG7k5
— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) December 7, 2023
So, nearly a full half of all respondents are “very concerned”? Despite the shockingly high figure, it all depends on the definition of “somewhat” because it almost sounds low at least to me. Still, the full 84% is near unanimity.
There were many concerned comments on “X” that deserve our attention:
#MorningJoe @JoeNBC @morningmika had many of same thoughts and words as candidate Ramaswamy, but, far more profane. Joe grouped all @capitolpolice into one group of neer-do-wells. pic.twitter.com/zHtWbpyUeR
— observe_ct (@CtObserve) December 7, 2023
Personally, I worry less about violence around the Capitol than I do in the cities and MAGA-controlled areas with disgruntled extremists taking things into their own hands.
From Maga. That’s clear.
— JaneMcDemo @JaneS&A (@JaneSA78769249) December 7, 2023
No, not necessarily. If Trump wins even with a huge popular vote loss but invokes the Insurrection Act to control the border and cities while setting up detention camps, the violence could come from the left.
I do agree that the more insidious violence would come from the MAGA extremists because they believe it’s their right to win and expect to win so that Trump can save himself.
Even though I’ve specifically written about this problem many times, it becomes more real when I see the data and see people who necessarily follow politics share our fears.
I can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com and on Twitter @JasonMiciak.
Editor’s Note: This is an opinion piece reflecting the opinion of the author alone
