THE RISING: Chris Christie makes surprising surge in NBC News poll
The trend is your friend, say the political pros who know that poll numbers are meaningless at this stage, and right now one Republican is trending up — the one that can look Trump in the eye and shout, “Shut up.”
Unsurprisingly, it is the guy from New Jersey.
It is the guy that just last week we at this site pointed out had a natural lane, Chris Christie.
Christie is unlikely to win the nomination, but it is highly possible that a two “man” race in the GOP will involve Trump and Chris Christie, not Trump and Ron DeSantis.
The other development in the latest NBC News poll is that Trump has gained four points and now has 51% of Republican support, a key development.
But that means that one-half of the Republican party doesn’t want Trump, and the only guy moving up is Christie, as DeSantis moves down:
New NBC New poll – '24 GOP WH
Trump 51%
DeSantis 22%
Pence 7%
Christie 5%
Haley 4%
Ramaswamy 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 2%—
General Election Match-upsBiden 49%
Trump 45%Biden 47%
DeSantis 47%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 25, 2023
Yes, 5%, and yet every candidate besides Trump has either come down or stayed the same, while Christie went from 1% to 5%.
A lot of candidates have come from 1% in the first polls to win, and it was just last week that Christie was at 2% and 1% the week before that, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
Just last Sunday, we at this site wrote:
“Chris Christie has a lane, he knows it, and it comes naturally to him, all of which explains why Christie is the only candidate criticizing Trump the way Democrats criticize Trump.”
“Christie isn’t intimidated by Trump.”
“Christie doesn’t want anything from Trump.”
“He is the only real candidate truly liberated from Trump.”
And just this weekend, in front of the evangelicals at the Faith and Freedom Convention, Christie lambasted Trump for lack of accountability.
The evangelicals are not Christie’s natural constituency, many booed.
But, just like Christie will stand up to Trump, he told the crowd they can boo all they want.
He explained that Trump is actually the “loser,” not the leader. (Video Below)
“I’m running because he’s let us down, he’s let us down because he’s unwilling to take responsibility for any of the mistakes that were made, any of the faults that he has, and any of the things he has done.”
“And that is not leadership, everybody, that is a failure of leadership.”
The crowd started to boo and get restless. Then Christie blew the doors off the convention room and perhaps the race.
He did something that every other candidate is afraid to do, tell them and Trump that they’re wrong.
“You can boo all you want, but here’s the thing. Our faith teaches us that people have to take responsibility for what they do.”
At this point, a tiny few cheers went up from the crowd.
“I cannot stand by… and as soon as I start to be critical, after all that, like his White House Chief of Staff, all he does is call me names and belittle me.”
This is the lane that was discussed last weekend. Chris Christie is the only candidate in the Republican field “big enough” to tell the evangelicals, “boo all you want.”
And he’ll tell Trump; “You can call me any name you want, it’s childlike.”
The rest of the Republican field is terrified of Trump calling them names.
Christie uses it against Trump.
In saying that Trump refuses to take accountability for anything — something that the evangelicals know in their hearts — and then saying all Trump can do is call him names, Christie makes Trump look small, weak, and adolescent.
Because the guy flinging plates at the wall, leaving ketchup stains, is the one that never grew up.
It is for this very reason that Trump will avoid all debates.
Christie is the one candidate who can go head-to-head with Trump and make him look small. Picture how Trump appeared in Helsinki.
Again, do not mistake this as some ringing endorsement of Christie, far from it.
Biden can most easily beat Trump, as the poll shows. DeSantis represents a “placeholder” as “other.”
But DeSantis is MAGA, maybe even more MAGA than Trump. That’s his lane.
If someone were to run to the left of Trump, that could be trouble for Biden, though Biden has a record to run on that will be almost impossible to beat, especially if the economy continues to stabilize and get better.
There is one thing that Democrats should acknowledge.
If there is a non-political disaster like COVID, like countries shooting at each other, or an earthquake, at that point, we want Biden and 50 years of experience in the Oval Office.
But if we can’t have Biden — if a Republican wins in 2024 — we’ll hate all the political policy, but we’ll want someone competent enough to handle crises smartly.
In looking over the Republican primary crowd, Christie is the only one that could be trusted to lead the country through a 9-11, a massive earthquake in California, carriers crossing a half mile from each other in the Taiwan Strait, that type of thing.
Some in the GOP are going to wake up and see Trump as “small” and “diminished,” as he gets called out by Christie, who taunts Trump for calling him names.
Some in the GOP are going to wake up and see that “DEI” really isn’t destroying the country and that the country really isn’t “going to hell.”
At some point, it is going to become a two-man race, and from a Democratic point of view, the best result is that Trump squeaks out a victory over Christie — but does so as a very much diminished man, vulnerable, having taken a lot of punches and facing criminal trials.
Christie is trending up. For now, that’s a good thing. As we said last week, he is the one with the lane, and he’s exploiting it brilliantly.
Chris Christie has the courage to criticize Trump before a big crowd of evangelical activists:
“You can boo all you want, but here's the thing, our faith teaches us that people have to take responsibility for what they do”pic.twitter.com/90GB4gnJbC
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 23, 2023
I can be reached at jasonmiciak@gmail.com and on Twitter @JasonMiciak.
Editor’s note: This is an opinion column that solely reflects the opinions of the author.
